Ultimate Scenario Planning Izibonelo | Izinyathelo Ezi-5 Ezilula Zokushayela Imiphumela

Wake wazizwa sengathi ikusasa alibikezeleki ngokuphelele?

Njengoba noma ubani obukele i- Back to the Future II engakutshela, ukulindela ukuthi yini eseduze akuwona umsebenzi olula. Kepha ezinye izinkampani ezicabanga phambili zineqhinga - ukuhlela isimo.

Ufuna Izibonelo Zokuhlela Isimo? Namuhla sizolunguza ngemuva kwamakhethini ukuze sibone ukuthi ukuhlelwa kwesimo kusebenza kanjani umlingo wako, futhi sihlole izibonelo zokuhlela isimoukuchuma ngezikhathi ezingalindelekile.

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Iyini i-Scenario Planning?

Zicabange ungumqondisi wefilimu uzama ukuhlela i-blockbuster yakho elandelayo. Kuningi okuguquguqukayo okungaba nomthelela ekutheni izinto zihamba kanjani - ingabe umlingisi wakho oholayo uzolimala? Kuthiwani uma isabelomali semiphumela ekhethekile sincishiswa? Ufuna ifilimu iphumelele kungakhathaliseki ukuthi impilo ikuphosela ngani.

Kulapho ukuhlelwa kwesimo kungena khona. Esikhundleni sokuvele ucabange ukuthi yonke into izohamba kahle, ucabanga izinguqulo ezimbalwa ezihlukile zokuthi izinto zingadlala kanjani.

Mhlawumbe kwesinye inkanyezi yakho inyakazisa iqakala esontweni lokuqala lokuqopha. Kokunye, isabelomali semiphumela sinqunywa phakathi. Ukuthola izithombe ezicace kakhudlwana zalezi ezinye izinto ezingokoqobo kukusiza ukuthi uzilungiselele.

Wenza amasu ukuthi uzobhekana kanjani nesimo ngasinye. Uma abaholayo bephumile ngenxa yokulimala, unamashejuli wokuqopha okubuyela emuva kanye nezinhlelo zabafundi abangaphansi ezilungile.

Ukuhlela isimoikunikeza lokho kubona kusengaphambili okufanayo kanye nokuvumelana nezimo ebhizinisini. Ngokudlala ikusasa elizwakalayo elihlukile, ungenza amasu akha ukuqina noma ngabe kwenzekani.

Izinhlobo Zokuhlelwa Kwesimo

Kunezinhlobo ezimbalwa zezindlela izinhlangano ezingazisebenzisa ukuhlela isimo:

• Izimo zobuningi: Amamodeli ezezimali avumela izinguqulo ezingcono kakhulu nezimbi kakhulu ngokushintsha inani elilinganiselwe lezici/izici. Zisetshenziselwa izibikezelo zonyaka. Isibonelo, isibikezelo semali engenayo esinesimo esihle kakhulu/esibi kakhulu esisekelwe +/- 10% ekukhuleni kokuthengisa noma ekuqageleni kwezindleko kusetshenziswa izindleko eziguquguqukayo njengezinto ezisetshenziswayo ngamanani aphezulu/aphansi.

•Izimo ezijwayelekile: Chaza isimo sokuphela esikhethwayo noma esingafinyeleleka, esigxile kakhulu ezinhlosweni kunokuhlela okuhlosiwe. Ingahlanganiswa nezinye izinhlobo. Isibonelo, isimo seminyaka emi-5 sokuzuza ubuholi bemakethe esigabeni somkhiqizo omusha noma isimo sokuthobela umthetho esichaza izinyathelo zokuhlangabezana namazinga amasha.

• Izimo zokuphatha zamaqhinga:Lawa 'amanye amakusasa' agxila endaweni lapho kusetshenziswa khona imikhiqizo/izinsizakalo, ezidinga umbono obanzi wezimboni, umnotho, nomhlaba. Isibonelo, isimo semboni esivuthiwe sobuchwepheshe obusha obuphazamisayo obushintsha izidingo zamakhasimende, isimo sokwehla komnotho emhlabeni wonke esinesidingo esincishisiwe kuzo zonke izimakethe ezinkulu noma isimo senhlekelele yamandla esidinga ukutholwa kwezinsiza ezihlukile nokongiwa.

•Izimo zokusebenza: Hlola umthelela osheshayo womcimbi futhi unikeze ngemithelela yamasu yesikhashana. Isibonelo, isimo sokuvalwa kwesitshalo sihlela ukudluliswa kokukhiqiza/ukubambezeleka noma isimo senhlekelele yemvelo sihlela amasu okuthola kabusha kwe-IT/ops.

Inqubo Yokuhlela Isimo Nezibonelo

Izinhlangano zingazakhela kanjani olwazo uhlelo lwesimo? Kuveze ngalezi zinyathelo ezilula:

#1. Cabanga ngezimo zesikhathi esizayo

Esinyathelweni sokuqala sokukhomba udaba/isinqumo esigxilile, uzodinga ukuchaza ngokucacile umbuzo obalulekile noma izimo zesinqumo ezizosiza ukwazisa.

Udaba kufanele lucace ngokwanele ukuze luqondise ukuthuthukiswa kwesimo kodwa lube lubanzi ngokwanele ukuvumela ukuhlolwa kwekusasa elihlukahlukene.

Izinkinga ezijwayelekile okugxilwe kuzo zihlanganisa izinsongo zokuncintisana, izinguquko zemithetho, ukushintsha kwezimakethe, ukuphazamiseka kobuchwepheshe, ukutholakala kwezinsiza, umjikelezo wempilo womkhiqizo wakho, nokunye okunjalo - xoxa nethimba lakhoukuze uthole imibono eminingi ngangokunokwenzeka.

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Linganisa lokho okungaqinisekile kakhulu futhi okunomthelela kukho ukuhlela amasungesikhathi esihlosiwe. Thola imibono evela emisebenzini eyahlukene ukuze udaba lubambe imibono eyahlukene enhlanganweni yonkana.

Setha amapharamitha afana nemiphumela eyinhloko yezithakazelo, imingcele yokuhlaziya, nokuthi izimo zingathonya kanjani izinqumo.

Phinda uvakashele futhi ulungise umbuzo njengoba kudingeka ngokusekelwe ocwaningweni lwangaphambi kwesikhathi ukuze uqinisekise ukuthi izimo zizonikeza isiqondiso esiwusizo.

💡 Izibonelo zezindaba ezithile okugxilwe kuzo:

Isu lokukhulisa imali engenayo - Yiziphi izimakethe/imikhiqizo okufanele sigxile kuyo ukuze sizuze ukukhula kokuthengisa kwaminyaka yonke okungu-15-20% eminyakeni emi-5 ezayo?
Ukuqina kwe-Supply chain - Singakunciphisa kanjani ukuphazamiseka futhi siqinisekise ukunikezwa okungaguquki ngokuwohloka komnotho noma izimo eziphuthumayo zikazwelonke?
Ukwamukelwa kobuchwepheshe - Ukushintsha okuthandwayo kwamakhasimende kumasevisi edijithali kungabathinta kanjani imodeli yebhizinisi lethu phakathi neminyaka eyi-10 ezayo?
Abasebenzi besikhathi esizayo - Yimaphi amakhono nezinhlaka zenhlangano esizidingayo ukuze sihehe futhi sigcine ithalente eliphezulu kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo?
Okuhloswe ukusimama - Yiziphi izimo ezingasenza sikwazi ukuzuza ukukhishwa kwe-zero yonke ngo-2035 sibe sigcina inzuzo?
Ukuhlanganiswa nokutholwa - Yiziphi izinkampani ezisizanayo okufanele sizicabangele ukuze sizithole ukuze sihlukanise ukusakazwa kwemali engenayo ngo-2025?
Ukunwetshwa kwendawo - Yiziphi izimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe ezingu-2-3 ezinikeza amathuba angcono kakhulu okukhula okunenzuzo ngo-2030?
Izinguquko zokulawula - Imithetho emisha yobumfihlo noma intengo yekhabhoni ingaba nomthelela kanjani kuzinketho zethu zamacebo phakathi neminyaka emi-5 ezayo?
Ukuphazamiseka kwemboni - Kuthiwani uma izimbangi ezishibhile noma ubuchwepheshe obuthile bucekela phansi kakhulu isabelo semakethe eminyakeni emi-5?

#2.Hlaziya izimo

Uzodinga ukunganaki okushiwo yisimo ngasinye kuyo yonke iminyango/imisebenzi, nokuthi sizoba nomthelela kanjani ekusebenzeni, ezezimali, kwabasebenzi, nokunye.

Hlola amathuba kanye nezinselelo isimo ngasinye esingase siveze ebhizinisini. Iziphi izinketho zamasu ezinganciphisa ubungozi noma amathuba okuthuthukisa?

Thola amaphuzu ezinqumo ngaphansi kwesimo ngasinye lapho kungase kudingeke ukulungiswa kwesifundo. Yiziphi izimpawu ezingabonisa ukushintshela kumzila ohlukile?

Izimo zemephu ngokumelene nezinkomba zokusebenza ezibalulekile ukuqonda imithelela yezezimali nokusebenza ngobuningi lapho kungenzeka khona.

Cabanga ngemiphumela ye-oda lesibili kanye ne-cascading engaba khona phakathi kwezimo. Le mithelela ingase iphindeke kanjani nge-ecosystem yebhizinisi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi?

Ukuziphatha ukuhlolwa kwengcindezifuthi ukuhlaziywa kobuzweukuhlola ubungozi bezimo. Yiziphi izici zangaphakathi/zangaphandle ezingasishintsha kakhulu isimo?

Xoxani ngokuhlolwa okungenzeka kwesimo ngasinye ngokusekelwe olwazini lwamanje. Yikuphi okubonakala kuncane kakhulu noma kuncane kakhulu?

Bhala phansi konke ukuhlaziya kanye nemithelela ukuze udale ukuqonda okwabiwe kwabathatha izinqumo.

💡 Izibonelo zokuhlaziya isimo:

Isimo 1: Isidingo siyenyuka ngenxa yabasanda kungena emakethe

Amandla emali engenayo ngesifunda/segimenti yekhasimende ngayinye
Izidingo ezengeziwe zokukhiqiza/ukugcwalisa amandla
Izidingo zemali yokusebenza
Ukuthembeka kweketango lokuhlinzeka
Ukuqasha izidingo ngendima
Ingozi yokukhiqiza ngokweqile/yokutholakala ngokweqile

Isimo sesi-2: Izindleko zezinto ezibalulekile ziphinda kabili eminyakeni emi-2

Ukunyuka kwentengo okungenzeka ngomugqa womkhiqizo ngamunye
Ukusebenza kwamasu okunciphisa izindleko
Izingozi zokugcinwa kwamakhasimende
Izinketho zokuhlukahluka kochungechunge lokunikezela
Okubalulekile kwe-R&D ukuthola ezinye ezibambele
I-Liquidity/isu lezezimali

Isimo sesi-3: Ukuphazanyiswa kwemboni ngobuchwepheshe obusha

Umthelela kuphothifoliyo yomkhiqizo/yesevisi
Utshalomali oludingekayo lwezobuchwepheshe/zamathalente
Amasu okuphendula okuncintisana
Amamodeli entengo emisha
Izinketho zokubambisana/i-M&A ukuze uthole amakhono
Izingozi ze-Patent/IP kusuka ekuphazamisekeni

#3. Khetha izinkomba ezihamba phambili

Izinkomba ezihamba phambili zingamamethrikhi angabonisa uma isimo singenzeka ngaphambi kwesikhathi kunokulindelekile.

Kufanele ukhethe izinkomba ezishintsha ngokuthembekile isiqondiso ngaphambi kokuba umphumela wesimo ubonakale.

Cabangela kokubili amamethrikhi angaphakathi njengezibikezelo zokuthengisa kanye nedatha yangaphandle njengemibiko yezomnotho.

Misa imingcele noma ububanzi bezinkomba ezingase zicuphe ukwanda kokuqapha.

Yabela ukuziphendulela ukuhlola njalo amanani ezinkomba ngokumelene nokuqagela kwesimo.

Nquma isikhathi sokuhola esifanele phakathi kwesiginali yenkomba nomthelela olindelekile wesimo.

Thuthukisa izinqubo zokubuyekeza izinkomba ngokuhlanganyela ukuze kuqinisekiswe isimo. Amamethrikhi awodwa angahle angaqinisekisi.

Yenza ukuhlolwa kokulandelela inkomba ukuze kucwengwe okunikeza amasiginali ayisixwayiso angasebenza kakhulu, futhi ulinganise isifiso sesixwayiso sangaphambi kwesikhathi namazinga angaba khona "e-alamu yamanga" evela ezinkomba.

💡Izibonelo zezinkomba ezihamba phambili:

Izinkomba zezomnotho - amazinga okukhula kwe-GDP, amazinga okungasebenzi, ukwehla kwamandla emali, inzalo, ukuqaliswa kwezindlu, umkhiqizo wokukhiqiza
Amathrendi embonini - Amashifu okwabelana ngemakethe, amajika wokwamukela umkhiqizo omusha, amanani okokufaka/izinto ezibonakalayo, izinhlolovo zemizwa yamakhasimende
Izinyathelo zokuncintisana - Ukungena kwabancintisana nabo abasha, ukuhlanganiswa/ukutholwa, izinguquko zentengo, imikhankaso yokumaketha
Umthetho/inqubomgomo - Inqubekelaphambili yomthetho omusha, iziphakamiso zokulawula/izinguquko, izinqubomgomo zohwebo

#4. Yakha amasu okuphendula

Thola ukuthi yini ofuna ukuyifinyelela esimeni ngasinye esizayo ngokusekelwe ekuhlaziyweni kwemiphumela.

Xoxa ngezinketho eziningi ezahlukene ngezinyathelo ongazithatha njengokukhula ezindaweni ezintsha, ukunciphisa izindleko, ukusebenzelana nabanye, ukusungula izinto ezintsha nokunye.

Khetha izinketho ezisebenzayo kakhulu futhi ubone ukuthi zifana kanjani nesimo ngasinye sesikhathi esizayo.

Yenza izinhlelo ezinemininingwane mayelana nezimpendulo zakho ezihamba phambili ezingu-3-5 zesikhathi esifushane neside esimo ngasinye. Faka nezinketho zokusekelayo uma kwenzeka isimo singahambi njengoba bekulindelekile.

Nquma ukuthi yiziphi izimpawu ezizokutshela ukuthi yisikhathi sokwenza impendulo ngayinye. Linganisela ukuthi izimpendulo zizokufanelekela yini ngokwezimali esimweni ngasinye esizayo futhi uhlole ukuthi unakho okudingayo ukuze ufeze izimpendulo ngempumelelo.

💡Izibonelo zamasu okuphendula:

Isimo: Ukwehla komnotho kunciphisa isidingo

Nciphisa izindleko eziguquguqukayo ngokudilizwa kwesikhashana kanye nokumiswa kwezindleko ngokubona
Shifta amaphromoshini uye kuzinqwaba zenani elingeziwe ukuze ulondoloze amamajini
Xoxisana ngemibandela yokukhokha nabahlinzeki ukuze uthole ukuguquguquka kwempahla
Abasebenzi be-cross-train ukuze bathole izinsiza eziguquguqukayo kuwo wonke amayunithi ebhizinisi

Isimo: Ubuchwepheshe obuphazamisayo buzuza isabelo semakethe ngokushesha

Thola abasafufusa abasafufusa ngamakhono ahambisanayo
Yethula uhlelo lwangaphakathi lwe-incubator ukuze uzenzele izixazululo eziphazamisayo
Yabela kabusha i-capex ekukhiqizeni kwedijithali nezinkundla
Phishekela amamodeli amasha wobambiswano ukuze unwebe amasevisi anikwe amandla ubuchwepheshe

Isimo: Isimbangi singena emakethe ngesakhiwo samanani aphansi

Hlela kabusha i-supply chain ukuze uthole izifunda ezinezindleko eziphansi
Sebenzisa uhlelo lokuthuthukisa inqubo eqhubekayo
Khomba izingxenye zemakethe ze-niche ezinesiphakamiso senani eliphoqayo
Ukunikezwa kwesevisi yenqwaba kumakhasimende anamathelayo azwela kakhulu ngentengo

#5. Sebenzisa uhlelo

Ukuze usebenzise ngempumelelo amasu okuphendula athuthukisiwe, qala ngokuchaza ukuziphendulela nezikhathi zesikhathi sokwenza isenzo ngasinye.

Vikela isabelomali/izinsiza futhi ususe noma yiziphi izithiyo ekusebenziseni.

Thuthukisa ama-playbooks ngezinketho zezimo eziphuthumayo ezidinga isenzo esisheshayo.

Sungula ukulandelela ukusebenza ukuze uqaphe ukuqhubeka kwezimpendulo nama-KPI.

Yakha ikhono ngokuqasha, ukuqeqesha kanye nezinguquko zesakhiwo senhlangano.

Xhumana ngemiphumela yesimo kanye nezimpendulo zamasu ezihambisanayo kuyo yonke imisebenzi.

Ukuqinisekisa ukuqapha okuqhubekayo okuqhubekayo kwesimo nokuhlolwa kabusha kwamasu okuphendula kuyilapho ubhala okufundiwe nolwazi oluzuzwe ngokuhlangenwe nakho kokuqaliswa kwezimpendulo.

💡Izibonelo zokuhlela isimo:

Inkampani yezobuchwepheshe yethule i-incubator yangaphakathi (isabelomali esabiwe, abaholi abanikiwe) ukuze kuthuthukiswe izixazululo ezihambisana nesimo esingase sibe nokuphazamiseka. Izinyathelo ezintathu zokuqalisa zalingwa ezinyangeni eziyisi-6.
Umthengisi oqeqeshe abaphathi besitolo ohlelweni lokuhlela abasebenzi oluphuthumayo ukuze banciphise/bengeze abasebenzi uma isidingo sishintsha njengesimo esisodwa sokwehla komnotho. Lokhu kuhlolwe ngokumodela izifaniso ezimbalwa zokwehla kwesidingo.
Umkhiqizi wezimboni uhlanganise ukubuyekezwa kwezindleko ezinkulu emjikelezweni wabo wokubika wanyanga zonke. Izabelomali zamaphrojekthi asazoqalwa zibekwa ngokuhambisana nezikhathi ezibekiwe kanye namaphuzu okuqala.

Izitoreji Eziyinhloko

Nakuba ikusasa lingaqinisekile ngokwemvelo, ukuhlela isimo kusiza izinhlangano ukuthi zibheke imiphumela engase ibe khona ngamasu.

Ngokwakha izindaba ezihlukene kodwa ezingaguquguquki ngaphakathi zokuthi abashayeli bangaphandle bangenzeka kanjani, kanye nokuhlonza izimpendulo ukuze ziphumelele endaweni ngayinye, izinkampani zingalungisa ngokuqhubekayo ikusasa lazo kunokuba zibe isisulu sokusonta okungaziwa.

imibuzo ejwayelekile ukubuzwa

Yiziphi izinyathelo ezi-5 zenqubo yokuhlela yesimo?

Izinyathelo ezi-5 zenqubo yokuhlela yesimo yilezi: 1. Cabanga ngezimo zesikhathi esizayo - 2.

Hlaziya izimo - 3. Khetha izinkomba ezihamba phambili - 4. Thuthukisa amasu okuphendula - 5. Sebenzisa uhlelo.

Yisiphi isibonelo sokuhlela isimo?

Isibonelo sokuhlela isimo: Emkhakheni womphakathi, ama-ejensi afana ne-CDC, i-FEMA, ne-WHO zisebenzisa izimo ukuhlela izimpendulo eziwubhadane, izinhlekelele zemvelo, izinsongo zokuphepha nezinye izinkinga.

Yiziphi izinhlobo ezi-3 zezimo?

Izinhlobo ezintathu eziyinhloko zezimo yizimo ezihlolayo, ezivamile nezibikezelayo.